Lokpal: Credit goes to Anna for bringing it up and stalling it!

I would give full credit to Anna Hazare and team for forcing the government to take up the Lokpal vigorously. Finally the government brought one reasonably better, though not perfect, and I believe they tried their best to get it through. If the Anna and team had stopped there, I strongly believe, we should have got the Lokpal and the whole credit would have gone to Anna and team. But what has happened is unfortunate!

Image Courtesy: Outlook India

It is very clear that every body divided on various provisions of the Lokpal! Many of the apprehensions of various political parties, NGOs and general public are genuine too. But when there are many differing views and most of them have genuine concern, it is only obvious that we have to agree to one, finding a middle ground. It is in this light, we should see the government has brought some amendments after discussion in the Lok Sabha incorporating some of the views from other parties. Nothing can be perfect and drawbacks and flaws can be reviewed once it is up and running. It is always possible to press for amendments if any major problem or weakness found later. It is quite unreasonable to expect that every demands should be accepted when government have differing views. After all it is the government whom people have elected and if people are not satisfied or convinced, five years is not too long a time to reconsider their decision!

The adamant stand of Anna Team only helped parties who are not interested to have such an anti-corruption set-ups for their own narrow vested interests. They could stall the bill all together at the expense of Anna Team. They got strength and could hide from public anger against them because of Anna's continued opposition against the bill passed in the Lok Sabha.

The Bomb

11th March 2011
A massive earthquake shakes Japan!
Killer waves of monster tsunami wipe out everything on the shore!
Roads, bridges, railways, buildings, vehicles anything and everything submerge!
16,000 people killed. 125,000 building destroyed.

Besides all of these,
One thing shocked the world more seriously!
The failure of Fukushima Nuclear Plant!
Scary days of nuclear disaster!

The response from world leaders were even surprising!
Germany declared decommissioning of its 22 reactors in coming decade!
Switzerland announced end of nuclear by end of 2034!
Italy by a referendum decided to end its nuclear industry!
Japan announced closure of its several nuclear plants for tests!

It was like the world have never seen a disaster more devastating than this!
It was like the world didn't know anything that can be more devastating than this!

You know one thing?
Something looming large over the world?
A bomb, more powerful than a nuclear disaster!
The ageing large dams!
The real monster! Water Bomb!
There are hundreds of it around the world!
The average age of the dam in US is 50 years! And still ageing!

The collapse of Banqiao dam in China 
It killed 171,000 people in 1975!
11 million people lost their homes!
The flood caused waves 10km wide and 3-7 meters high!
It rushed onto the plain down at a speed of 50km per hour!
It wiped out everything on area of 50km long and 10km wide!
Just imagine the area it destroyed!

The St. Francis Dam after the catastrophic failure. (courtesy)

The failure of St. Francis Dam in USA in 1928!
The exact number of victims remain unknown!
The victims were flushed out to the Pacific Ocean, 87km away from dam site!
The flood was almost 3 km wide!
Again an area of 87km long and 3 km wide!


Morvi Dam collapse in Indian state of Gujarat
It killed more than 25,000 people in 1979!

Now the population density is not as it was in 1920s or 1970s.
The same intensity of dam collapse can make the destruction far more bigger!
Many large old dams are in thickly populated area with potential to kill not thousands, but millions!
Resulting flood wave can destroy the whole environment and will change the geography of the entire area!
The debris deposited in the dam for more than a century will come out with collapse of dam which can create epidemic in unimaginable proportion!

Friends, some facts are scary!
Please don't accuse me of scaremongering!

We can not stop tsunami happening!
But we can stop tsunami caused by dam collapse!
We used such dams for 50 or 100 of years! Now why do we wait until it collapses!
That will destroy everything that we earned with the existence of the dam itself!
Our past generation built up their life, the economy and the nation for us with these dams and finally this generation is going to be destroyed with the same dams!

Yes, of course, we have good examples too!
Victoria dam in Australia was built in 1891
The dam found weakened by leaching of lime with leakage of water!
And they rebuilt it in 1991 exactly after 100 years!

San Fernando Dam in USA
It was partially damaged in an earthquake in 1971.
With the safety concern of more than 80,000 people living downstream, the authority decided to rebuild it.
They built it in 4 years with earthquake resistant practices and technologies!
Two decades later in 1994 another earthquake hit the dam area, and the dam was able to withstand!

What we need now?
Immediate decommissioning of old dam or rebuilding!
But the world is silent, for various reasons!
In some instances, it is lack of funds!
In some instances, it is political reasons and short-sightedness of the leaders!
In some instances, it is red-tapes and bureaucracy!
But the nature's law will not wait for anybody!

There are hundreds of dam under construction.
We need policy for decommissioning of dams!
There should have clear policy statement with regards to every aspects of decommission at the end of its useful life!
There should have policy for its regular maintenance and safety inspections!

Is Mullaperiyar Dam Safe?

The age of 116 years old Mullaperiyar Dam and the fact that it has outlived its design life of 50 year by more than 60 years itself are enough for common people to worry about the safety of dam and possible catastrophe the dam collapse can make! But it is not only the common man's perception, but experts and technical people also have evidence and reasoning to pronounce the dam is unsafe.

Here are some excerpts:

Retired Engineer M. Sasidharan:

"The scanning of upstream side of the Mullaperiyar dam using a remote operated vehicle by the Central Soil and Materials Research Station on directions from the Empowered Committee of the Supreme Court had found serious damage to the masonry structure between 95 to 106 feet from the base of the dam, retired engineer M. Sasidharan who was observer of Kerala during the scanning said in a report to the government." ‘Serious damage’ to masonry of Mullaperiyar dam detected The Hindu, December 7, 2011.

Himanshu Thakkar, Coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People:

"A dam that is now 116 year old developed leaks and cracks during the earthquake in 1979. Recently, at least four earthquake tremors since July 2011 (as accepted by Tamil Nadu in an application before the Supreme Court filed on December 1) are only the latest of the seismic activity in the dam area in this context. Several expert bodies including the Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Earth Science Studies, etc. have concluded that the dam structure and foundation is too weak to take the shock of earthquake of magnitude 6.5 on Richter scale, which is very much likely at the dam site. The dam is not able to take the load it is supposed to take. Its unique construction material, geological and seismic location does not render it fit for any further technical solution." Why Mullaperiyar Dam needs to be decommissioned Urgently  , Rediff.com December 2, 2011 

James Wilson, Assistant Executive Engineer (Civil), Kerala State Electricity Board:

The Mullaperiyar Dam was built of lime surkhi concrete which is a very low strength concrete almost equivalent to M5 concrete compared to M30 concrete used for Idukki Arch Dam. The strength of this concrete has further reduced due to the continuous leaching of lime reported from its inception. Even though two attempts of grouting were attempted in 1930s and 1960s, it was not able to completely fill the cavities formed due to the leaching of lime. Seismic Threat to Mullaperiyar Dam, November 7, 2010

These excerpts only shows the structural weakness of the dam. Then there are study reports that shows the possibility of earthquake of 6.5 magnitude in the dam area and dam can not withstand an earthquake of such magnitude.

There are counter arguments from Tamil Nadu against these study reports. But should we play with lives of 3.5 millions of people? There are international conventions and principles on the aspect of precautionary measures. See what Justice. V. R, Krishna Iyer says, "Mullaperiyar is a classic instance where the precautionary principle of action cannot wait for a public calamity to happen"

"There are situations where engineers may disagree with one another. Some experts may consider the condition of a dam to be marginally safer than what others say it is. But nature has its own way, and experts’ expectations and calculations may go awry. Once there is doubt and the possibility of a risk, the state should not take any chances. This principle was laid down in the Rio de Janeiro Declaration on Environment and Development of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992)." A dam and some critical questions, The Hindu, July 21, 2009

Doesn't the Kerala's demand for decommissioning of the old Mullaperiyar Dam and constructing a new dam make sense?